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What is your guesstimate of the outcome of the 2017 GE
Poll ended at Wed Jun 07, 2017 7:42 am
Labour majority 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Labour run coalition 21%  21%  [ 8 ]
Tory run coalition 8%  8%  [ 3 ]
Tory maintains 2015 majority 21%  21%  [ 8 ]
Tory majority 20-30 8%  8%  [ 3 ]
Tory majority 30-40 21%  21%  [ 8 ]
Tory majority 40+ 21%  21%  [ 8 ]
Total votes : 38

Re: The Mailwatch 2017 GE result poll

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:59 pm 
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So we go from "unelected PM seeks mandate" to "PM has mandate" to "PM resigns" to "unelected PM seeks mandate" within 6 months?

Autumn General Election, anyone?

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:12 pm 
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bluebellnutter wrote:
So we go from "unelected PM seeks mandate" to "PM has mandate" to "PM resigns" to "unelected PM seeks mandate" within 6 months?

Autumn General Election, anyone?


She's been a fool. Knowing that almost half the country wanted to remain in Europe, why call an election seeking a mandate to enable a "strong Brexit"? Was everyone supposed to roll over and say "Ok then."?


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:25 pm 
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To clear the remainers and her critics out of the commons. After all the Westminster bubble is a thing, so if she's not hearing criticism from the 650 people she has to rub shoulders with, she sure as hell won't hear it from the country.

Pity it don't work like that.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:31 pm 
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Andy McDandy wrote:
To clear the remainers and her critics out of the commons. After all the Westminster bubble is a thing, so if she's not hearing criticism from the 650 people she has to rub shoulders with, she sure as hell won't hear it from the country.

Pity it don't work like that.


Aye, of course. And Corbyn's dismal reputation gave her added traction.
She must be kicking herself now, though.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:41 pm 
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One of the caveats here is whether the Tories can mobilise supporters to get out to vote for Theresa May in the same way they did Cameron? Most marginals aren't Brexit strongholds either.

This poll last night is the highest YouGov polling for Labour since July 2014

Quote:

CON: 42% (-1)
LAB: 39% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
UKIP: 4% (-)
(via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:42 pm 
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Apparently London's figures as splashed in the Standard show Labour polling roughly where they were in the capital in 1997.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 2:49 pm 
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Let's look at a scenario that has gone from outlandish to unlikely in the past week:

The Tories are the biggest party, just short of a majority. Labour can't cobble together a coalition big enough. I can't think of any party that would join with the Tories so they limp on for another six months of minority government. That takes us up to Christmas, the earliest another election could be called would be the end of February so you're looking at April before the dust settles.

The biggest and most complex political decision since 1945 and Theresa May's vanity has taken up half the time we have to work it through.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:01 pm 
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Surely in that scenario any incoming Government would be faced with such a total car-crash they'd have no option but to withdraw Article 50. Bugger what Dacre thinks by then, it'd be simply too much to do, and crucially be seen as being too much to do.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:46 pm 
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bluebellnutter wrote:
Apparently London's figures as splashed in the Standard show Labour polling roughly where they were in the capital in 1997.



Quote:
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

London Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 50% (+9)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
UKIP: 3% (-3)
GRN: 2 (-1)

(via @YouGov / 26 - 31 May)


It'll be good for the opposition for LDs to get their west London seats back including Vince Cable. I'm not surprised a dim bigot from the shires like May is not playing well with liberal London Tory lawyers and City types Osborne and Cameron spent so much effort in wooing back to the fold.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:46 pm 
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Just reading some of the posts: well, in one way it could be back to the 1970s - a single-issue general election lost by the incumbent, closely followed by another one within a year...


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:49 pm 
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The DUP are buyable. And proper Brexiters too.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:50 pm 
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youngian wrote:
bluebellnutter wrote:
Apparently London's figures as splashed in the Standard show Labour polling roughly where they were in the capital in 1997.



Quote:
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects

London Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 50% (+9)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
UKIP: 3% (-3)
GRN: 2 (-1)

(via @YouGov / 26 - 31 May)


It'll be good for the opposition for LDs to get their west London seats back including Vince Cable. I'm not surprised a dim bigot from the shires like May is not playing well with liberal London Tory lawyers and City types Osborne and Cameron spent so much effort in wooing back to the fold.


Also the exact sort of Tory who voted Remain in decent quantities last year. They're being shat on as much as non-Tory Remainers at the end of the day.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:57 pm 
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Of course, lots of Remainers just want Brexit to go ahead now, and May will hold on to most of those, even in London. The more Kipperish Tories tend to be in safe Tory seats in Bexley, Havering etc. So they could be piling up votes where they don't need them, just like Labour could be.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:18 pm 
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davidjay wrote:
Let's look at a scenario that has gone from outlandish to unlikely in the past week:

The Tories are the biggest party, just short of a majority. Labour can't cobble together a coalition big enough. I can't think of any party that would join with the Tories so they limp on for another six months of minority government. That takes us up to Christmas, the earliest another election could be called would be the end of February so you're looking at April before the dust settles.

The biggest and most complex political decision since 1945 and Theresa May's vanity has taken up half the time we have to work it through.


Don't rule out Corbyn lending May his support for Brexit talks. After rebuilding so much good will with his performance over the past few weeks it would typical of him to blow it and send the party back into civil war. We would probably get an amicable Swiss assoctiate membership type deal if Starmer's team are negotiating which he could sell to both sides. Remainers should be more optimistic about the chances of Brexit imploding under May but the consequences are so grim for the country I'm not keen on that happening.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:26 pm 
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Could a cliff edge clusterfuck lead to the whole thing being called off?


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