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Scottish independence

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 Post subject: Scottish independence
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:43 am 
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So Cameron wants to move forward a referendum on Scottish independence, apparently to derail the Scots Nats timetable (& the Bannockburn effect) and ensure a no vote.
The opinion polls which I have seen indicate that a no vote was the most likely outcome prior to Cameron's latest statement.
It seems to me that nothing is better guaranteed to enrage the Scots more than this contemptuous overriding of the Scottish parliament and, therefore, through his actions, Cameron has made a yes vote more likely.
Given that there would be a political advantage to the Tories in losing all those Scottish Labour votes, what I'm left wondering is was this his real intention all along, or is it merely a further example of Tory incompetence and inability to empathise?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:57 am 
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This is quite a fascinating political topic. I'm thinking it's a combination of both factors. Looking long term, a separated Scotland would indeed be a worthwhile strategy for the Tories to secure perpetual rule over England, Wales, and NI, and I have no doubt that that us at the back of his mind. Remember however, that Cameron leads the Conservative and Unionist Party, and that there are therefore considerable elements within the party that are wedded to the Act of Union and would welcome a bold stroke by Cameron to piss on Salmond's chips and put the uppity bugger permanently in his place, so there is also an element of crowd-pleasing with respect to the belligerent elements of his own party..

You're right to highlight that it does represent a considerable gamble by Cameron, though. The move really does risk pissing off Scots voters who may as yet be opposed to full independence for Scotland, but can be swayed in favour of separation by a perceived arrogant and interfering London-based Tory administration trying to put a spoke in their wheel and tell Scots what to do yet again, and you can bet that Salmond will waste no time or opportunity in portraying the move as just that - indeed Nicola Sturgeon has already begun this morning.

I think Cameron underestimates Salmond at his peril. Salmond knows that Scots by and large trust him and his party to do a good job of running Scotland, and he will quietly continue to do so on his planned long path towards a referendum of his choice in 2014, building support for independence into something solid and as unshakeable as possible, and will in all likelihood turn any attempt by Cameron to derial him to his (Salmond's) advantage.

I await the consequences of Cameron's intervention with interest, but already I'm wondering about applying for a Scottish passport.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:25 pm 
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I'd be interested to know the balance of opinion amongst Tory supporters (members/voters/MPs). On the one hand there are the traditionalist, old school, one nation, Unionists who are very conservative with a small 'c' as well as a big one. On the other there are the Mailitie, Little Englanders who regard all Celts with suspicion and would probably like to see an independent England.

The proportions of these two groups is critical to how Cameron's gamble will play out. I've been looking for some stats but I've turned nothing up so far.

If Scotland does ever achieve Independence, they'd better be prepared for being 'swamped' by refugees from South of the border.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:35 pm 
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Yes - expect the Mail's comment section to be full of those, advocating the immediate implementation of an independent Scotland. Also lots of half-wits calling for a UK-wide referendum on an independent Scotland, which, it's sadly likely to be true, would result in a yes vote, there being some level of English support for this on the basis of being rid of whingeing over-subsidised Scots etc etc, coupled with resentment that the Scots government has implemented civilised measures, eg free prescriptions, free social care, no tuition fees for native or EC students that their beloved Tory government would never do in England.

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Last edited by Abernathy on Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 12:50 pm 
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Hmmmm. Former Labour MP Ann Taylor (now in the Lords) wants to give expatriate Scots a vote in an independence referendum. I had no idea she was from Motherwell - even Wikipedia gives her place of birth as London.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/drive_to_give_scots_expats_referendum_vote_1_2043354

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:09 pm 
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Abernathy wrote:
Hmmmm. Former Labour MP Ann Taylor (now in the Lords) wants to give expatriate Scots a vote in an independence referendum. I had no idea she was from Motherwell - even Wikipedia gives her place of birth as London.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/drive_to_give_scots_expats_referendum_vote_1_2043354

Is she playing by Fifa rules maybe?

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:28 pm 
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That seems a funny intervention by Taylor. An attempt to undermine the legitimacy?


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:31 pm 
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An independant Scotland is one thing. But - as noted in previous posts - an independant England is a real cause for concern.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:48 pm 
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Tubby Isaacs wrote:
That seems a funny intervention by Taylor. An attempt to undermine the legitimacy?


Seems like another terrible miscalculation to me. As a Scot myself, I know how pissed-off we can get about people trying to bugger us about. The backlash could something that "Motherwell Anne" isn't anticipating.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:17 pm 
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Doubtless after the Sean Connery vote...

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:20 pm 
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To be honest, I'd be tempted to move back up to Edinburgh if I thought independence was on the cards. The only con is the weather is a bit worse, but the pro of not being in a country perpetually rigged to be Tory somewhat outweighs that.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:21 pm 
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I might move up there myself at this rate...

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 2:44 pm 
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We could all move into a £6 million mansion and claim plasma tellies and flash cars and stuff.

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:28 pm 
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Cameron's great Scottish gamble: Premier wants to force early vote on independence




Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... z1j0TOSaBU


the comments :evil:

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PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:38 pm 
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I think the West Lothian question rather undermines the moral high ground, in terms of the English politicians "interfering".

The Scottish Parliament is good, and it's very healthy indeed to have different parts of the union doing different things. And it's not at all Scotland's fault that England didn't want to set up its own Parliament. But I feel the Labour politicians should have shown restraint in using Scottish votes.

For example we had under Labour the absurd situation of John Reid (representing a Scottish constituency) trying to block the smoking ban in England, when the Scottish Parliament was pressing ahead with a ban.


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