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Re: Europe? And the Future of Britain in Europe

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:57 am 
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We all know that Brexit is going to be a disaster and that it was a predictable disaster, and that the Tories are plunging headlong into the disaster.

Discounting the inexcusable racism and xenophobia of the right in general, why are they doing this? is it because they are scared that the Mail and Express will explode or something? Brexit isn't even that popular any more, it was only ever 52% at its peak and more and more people are coming to their senses and realising that its wrong.

Why cant some politician stand up and say "Brexit is a massive,. massive mistake and we need to pull the plug on this madness NOW! We must do everything in our power to stop it, or at worst. delay it"

Even if this was futile, the person who stood up to be counted could run for leadership in, say, 5 years time, when the huge recession has really started to bite, on a platform of rejoining the EU.

Balls to all this "will of the people" shit, it was based on a pack of lies and the interests of the country MUST come first.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:16 am 
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Going back to that interesting question posed a few posts back about why don't we give up on Brexit? and what would happen to the Tory party if we did, I actually think the Tories have dug themselves into a hole on the issue whichever way it goes.

Scenario1:

The VERY unlikely event of pulling out of Brexit and admitting it was a mistake. Mail and Express explode, Sun sits on fence, waiting to see how the wind of popular opinion blows, far right nutty element of the Tory party also explodes, some defect to UKIP, if a GE was called I wouldn't like to say which way it would go. Tories would lose the loon vote, could pick up some more sensible, Remain voters, split massively damages the party in the short/medium term.

Scenario 2:

Crash out with no/very poor deal. Mail/Express love it, Sun changes sides. Economy tanks, some sane elements in the Tory party bail out, abandoning it to the loons, GE called, Labour or Labour/LD coalition, again Tory party badly split, but this time much longer term

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:27 am 
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Is it a problem that Labour has largely copied the Tories on brexit though?

Hard to stick the knife in when you never actually argued against what they were doing.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:46 am 
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Nobody is brave enough to be the first to say "enough of this shit". That's why.

One doing it and not being immediately hounded out of office / deselected by their local party / shot will probably open the floodgates.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:15 am 
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I think it has polarised British politics even more, and turned the EU into a left/right issue when it wasn't, necessarily, one before.

For a long time, dating back to when Britain first talked about joining the EEC, as it then was, the middle ground in Britain was in favour of it, and at that time the Tories were pretty much for it, as the Tory right was then a fringe group, centred around Enoch Powell. There was also opposition to it from the Labour left, and again, at that time, the left in Labour was more significant than it is now.

Over time, the right came to dominate the Tory party and the left were marginalised within Labour, so a situation has arisen where, broadly, the Tories are pro-Brexit, with Labour, mostly, anti it. The problem for Labour was that quite a lot of its core areas, like Sunderland, and some Lancashire towns, voted leave, and haemmoraged votes to UKIP in some places too. Labour leavers saw UKIP as a one issue party, and mistakenly overlooked the fact that they are to the right of the Tories.

I suspect these are the leave voters who are realising that this was the wrong choice and Labour has to come down in opposition to the Tory impending disaster.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:06 pm 
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Could one of the resident tweeters send this link to John Redwood?

http://www.businessinsider.de/theresa-m ... ?r=UK&IR=T

Edit: Ah, The Red Arrow beat me to it. I still think we should let John Redwood know.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:01 pm 
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If you look at the demographics of the vote, the under 40s overwhelmingly voted to remain, as they have known nothing other than EU/EEC membership.

Over time, the leave voters in the older age group will disappear, and the country will probably be knocking on the door to be let back in 10 years or so down the line.

The ironic thing is that these short sighted elderly voters will be impacted by leave anyway, as the resulting recession will impact hugely on public services, so I hope they have their health insurance in place in case they have to depend on the private sector

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:21 pm 
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mr angry manchester wrote:
The ironic thing is that these short sighted elderly voters will be impacted by leave anyway, as the resulting recession will impact hugely on public services, so I hope they have their health insurance in place in case they have to depend on the private sector

Plenty of us voted to stay. Not enough admittedly.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:23 pm 
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mr angry manchester wrote:
If you look at the demographics of the vote, the under 40s overwhelmingly voted to remain, as they have known nothing other than EU/EEC membership.
Over time, the leave voters in the older age group will disappear, and the country will probably be knocking on the door to be let back in 10 years or so down the line.


Kind of ignores the well-observed phenomenon of people becoming more conservative in general over time.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:34 pm 
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1, I am in that age group (just) and voted remain

2, This trend for conservatism is this group wanting to reverse what they see as something anti-conservative

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:12 pm 
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Overwhelmingly simplistic point of view.

I am well into the older category (leave, according to you), but on the other hand I'm in the higher-educated group (Remain according to everybody). I'm London-based, so Remain. I travel in Europe a lot. That's pretty unlike someone of my age but a different socioeconomic category further north or east.

It just doesn't work like that, and as Orca rightly points out the general trend is rightwards over personal time.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:31 pm 
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The figures were:

1, Age - 50-64 Leave 60%, 65+ Leave 64%

2, Education - GCSE or lower - Leave 70%

It is a generalisation and there are exceptions, I am against the trend on both counts, as I am GCSE/Lower on education.

In addition, the trend towards conservatism with age means moving to the right, the right are, in general, pro Brexit.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:50 pm 
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I think that's what we said...

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 5:05 pm 
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My schoolteacher nephew is amazed that his Uncle's journey has been leftwards with age...


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:28 pm 
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mr angry manchester wrote:
Going back to that interesting question posed a few posts back about why don't we give up on Brexit? and what would happen to the Tory party if we did, I actually think the Tories have dug themselves into a hole on the issue whichever way it goes.

Scenario1:

The VERY unlikely event of pulling out of Brexit and admitting it was a mistake. Mail and Express explode, Sun sits on fence, waiting to see how the wind of popular opinion blows, far right nutty element of the Tory party also explodes, some defect to UKIP, if a GE was called I wouldn't like to say which way it would go. Tories would lose the loon vote, could pick up some more sensible, Remain voters, split massively damages the party in the short/medium term.

Scenario 2:

Crash out with no/very poor deal. Mail/Express love it, Sun changes sides. Economy tanks, some sane elements in the Tory party bail out, abandoning it to the loons, GE called, Labour or Labour/LD coalition, again Tory party badly split, but this time much longer term


In either case the papers insist everything is coming up roses, and if you disagree, you're a liar, a leftie or both.

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